HDB resale prices continued their upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a 2.6% increase compared to the previous quarter. This marked the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the resale market, according to the latest data published by HDB on Jan 24. The resilient market performance saw a cumulative price increase of 9.7% for the whole of 2024, almost double the 4.9% increase recorded in 2023.
The increase in resale prices in the fourth quarter was slightly lower than the 2.7% recorded in the third quarter of 2024. Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research & data analytics at SRI, attributes the robust growth throughout 2024 to the limited supply of flats that reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) during the year. This created some upward pressure on prices, particularly for newer and larger flat types such as five-room and executive units.
Among the various HDB flat types, five-room flats recorded the highest resale price growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, with an average price increase of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter to $754,097. Four-room flats also saw a 2.2% increase to $652,544 over the same period.
The Central Area saw the highest increase in prices, growing 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, followed by Toa Payoh (12.1%), Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%) and Bedok (6.1%), according to Christine Sun, chief researcher & strategist at OrangeTee Group. Meanwhile, Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, notes that approximately 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more in the last three months of 2024. This brings the total number of million-dollar transactions for the whole of 2024 to 1,035, with over 90% occurring in mature estates. The Kallang/Whampoa estate recorded the highest number of such transactions at 156 units, followed by Toa Payoh (144) and Bukit Merah (135).
Transaction volume for resale HDB properties experienced a lull in the fourth quarter, with a 21.1% quarter-on-quarter decrease from 8,142 units sold to 6,424 units. According to Lee, this can be attributed to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season. In addition, the lower interest rate environment may have enticed buyers to consider the private residential or Executive Condominium market instead. Some prospective buyers may have also opted for the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise that took place in October last year, notes Sandrasegeran.
When considering investing in a Singapore condo, it is crucial to take into account the government’s property cooling measures. The Singaporean government has implemented various policies over the years to regulate the real estate market and prevent speculative buying. One of these measures is the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which imposes higher taxes on foreign buyers and those purchasing multiple properties. While these measures may affect the immediate profitability of condo investments, they ultimately contribute to the long-term stability of the market, making it a more secure environment for investment in Singapore condos.
Despite the dip in the fourth quarter, the overall transaction volume for resale HDB flats in 2024 increased by 8.4% compared to the previous year. This marked the largest number of yearly resale transactions since 2021 when 31,017 flats were sold. According to transaction data compiled by Huttons Asia, Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines and Yishun were the top five most popular HDB towns among buyers in 2024, accounting for around 35.9% of all resale transactions.
The number of newly MOP (Minimum Occupation Period) flats entering the secondary HDB market in 2025 is expected to fall by 41.6% to 6,976 units compared to the 11,952 flats in 2024. Sandrasegeran attributes this to the relatively fewer BTO flats completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, HDB has announced plans to launch over 25,000 new flats across three BTO exercises in 2025 – comprising 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise.
The next SBF exercise will take place concurrently with the upcoming BTO sales exercise in February, where 5,000 BTO flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun will be offered. This will be the largest SBF exercise since 2020, with around 4 in 10 of the 5,500 units already completed. Sandrasegeran notes that SBF flats are particularly appealing to home seekers as they offer a shorter waiting time compared to the typical BTO process. Additionally, about 3,800 units of the 19,600 BTO flats slated for launch in 2025 will be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, offering wait times of less than three years.
Looking ahead, Sandrasegeran forecasts a 3.5% to 5.5% increase in resale prices for HDB properties in 2025, with transaction volume ranging between 26,000 and 27,000. However, Huttons’ Lee has a more optimistic outlook, projecting a price increase of between 5% to 8% across the year.